NFL betting lines might look like a confusing mix of numbers and symbols at first, but they tell a story. If you’re serious about football betting, understanding how to read and interpret those lines is essential. It’s not just about knowing what +3.5 means or how much a -150 moneyline pays — it’s about recognizing what the oddsmakers are thinking, how the public is reacting, and how to spot opportunity before the lines move.
This guide will walk you through everything you need to know to read NFL betting lines like a pro — from the basics of point spreads and totals to the deeper strategies involving line movement and implied odds.
What Are NFL Betting Lines?
NFL betting lines are essentially the oddsmakers’ way of leveling the playing field between two teams. They reflect more than just expected outcomes — they’re shaped by public perception, sharp money, recent form, injuries, and even weather conditions.
A betting line can involve:
- The point spread (who is favored and by how much)
- The moneyline (who is more likely to win outright)
- The over/under (how many points will be scored)
Each of these tells you something different about the game.
The Point Spread: Making Uneven Games Competitive
The point spread is probably the most iconic feature of NFL betting. It’s designed to handicap the favorite by giving points to the underdog, making both sides more attractive to bettors.
Example: You see a line like: Chiefs -6.5 vs Broncos +6.5. This means:
- The Chiefs are the favorites. They must win by 7 or more for a bet on them to pay out.
- The Broncos are the underdogs. If they lose by 6 or fewer (or win), bets on them cash.
The “.5” is called the hook — it eliminates the chance of a tie or “push.” With a -6.5 spread, the Chiefs cannot win by exactly 7 and cause a push. They either cover or they don’t.
Point spreads shift throughout the week as news, injuries, or betting volume influence perception. A line might open at -3 and move to -4.5 by kickoff. That movement tells a story, especially if the favorite grows stronger without any real changes on the field.
The Moneyline: Just Pick a Winner
If you don’t want to worry about point differentials, the moneyline is for you. It’s a straight-up bet on which team will win — but with different payouts depending on who’s favored.
Example: You see a line like this: Eagles -150 vs Cowboys +130. This means:
- Betting $150 on the Eagles wins you $100 profit if they win.
- Betting $100 on the Cowboys wins you $130 profit if they win.
The bigger the favorite, the less you win. That’s the trade-off for betting on safer teams. Underdogs pay more because they’re less likely to win — but when they do, it’s more profitable.
NFL moneyline betting is useful when the spread is tight or unpredictable. Some pros also target big underdogs on the moneyline if they believe the market is misreading the matchup.
Totals (Over/Under): Predicting the Game’s Pace
Another major market is the total points, often called the over/under. Here, you’re not picking a side. You’re betting on the combined score of both teams.
Example: You see a line like: Over/Under 45.5
If the final score is 24-21, that totals 45 points. If you bet the under, you win. If it had ended 27-21, total would be 48 — an over bet wins.
Why 45.5? Again, the hook. If the line was 45, a total of exactly 45 would cause a push, refunding bets. The half-point ensures action goes one way or the other.
Totals are influenced by:
- Weather (rain or wind can lower expected scoring)
- Offensive and defensive rankings
- Injuries to key players
- Tempo and play-calling tendencies
Some bettors specialize in totals, especially in matchups with contrasting styles — like a high-tempo passing team facing a grind-it-out run-heavy defense.
Understanding American Odds (+/- Format)
In American sportsbooks, odds are expressed using plus and minus signs:
- A minus indicates the favorite
- A plus indicates the underdog
-110 means you must bet $110 to win $100.
+150 means a $100 bet wins you $150.
These odds also imply probability. For example:
- -110 represents roughly 52.4% implied probability
- +150 represents 40% implied probability
This helps you evaluate risk vs reward. If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning, and they’re listed at +150, there might be value.
Odds formats vary worldwide — decimal odds (e.g. 2.50) or fractional (e.g. 3/2) are common elsewhere — but the principles are the same.
What an NFL Betting Line Looks Like
If you’ve ever opened a sportsbook app or site, you’ve seen a line that looks something like this:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +3.5 (-110) | +145 | Over 42.5 |
| Jets | -3.5 (-110) | -165 | Under 42.5 |
Here’s how to read it:
- The Jets are 3.5-point favorites. They must win by 4+ to cover.
- The Patriots are 3.5-point underdogs. They can lose by 3 or win outright.
- Moneyline: Jets -165 means you must risk $165 to win $100. Patriots +145 means a $100 bet wins $145.
- Over/Under: Total points projected is 42.5. Bet over if you expect 43+ points, under if you expect fewer.
You’ll also see alternate spreads, first-half lines, team totals, and prop bets – but everything still connects back to those three main markets.
Timing and Line Movement
Lines don’t stay static. The opening line might be quite different from the closing line (right before kickoff), and how it moves can reveal valuable insights.
Lines shift due to:
- Injuries (especially QBs or defensive stars)
- Sharp money (professional bettors influencing books)
- Public action (heavy volume on one team)
- Weather reports
- Line balancing (books adjusting to get even money on both sides)
Let’s say the Ravens open as -2.5 favorites, but by Sunday they’re -4.5. That’s a significant shift — especially if there’s no major news. It often means smart money came in early.
Some bettors jump on early lines to find inefficiencies. Others wait until late for more information or favorable movement. Either strategy works as long as you’re tracking movement and thinking about what’s driving it.
What Is the Vig? (Bookmaker Margin)
If both sides of a spread are priced at -110, that’s not a 50/50 proposition. It means you risk $110 to win $100 either way which gives the sportsbook a built-in edge. That’s called the vig or juice.
Think of it as a fee for placing a bet.
You won’t notice it on a single bet, but over time it adds up. That’s why serious bettors line shop comparing odds across multiple books to get the best price.
Finding -105 instead of -110 doesn’t sound like much, but across hundreds of bets, it could mean the difference between profit and loss.
Common Misunderstandings
Plenty of casual bettors make the same mistakes when looking at NFL betting lines:
- Thinking +3.5 means the team is likely to win. Not true, it just means they’re expected to lose by around a field goal.
- Confusing odds with payout. A team at -200 wins more often, but your payout is smaller.
- Ignoring the hook. Betting -3.5 instead of -3 can be a huge difference in a tight game.
- Not tracking line movement. A spread shifting from +3 to +1.5 tells you a lot about market confidence.
- Blindly betting the favorite. Sometimes the best value is on the less popular side.
The point of reading lines like a pro is not just to place smarter bets, it’s to see what the market is saying and decide if you agree or not.
Final Thoughts: Reading Between the Numbers
Once you learn how to read NFL betting lines properly, you’re not just another casual bettor throwing darts. You’re someone who understands how odds are shaped, how to spot inefficiencies, and how to avoid common traps.
It doesn’t mean you’ll win every bet – nobody does. But it does mean you’ll start betting with a deeper understanding of the game, the market, and yourself.
Start slow. Watch the lines throughout the week. Compare them to actual results. Track where you were right and where you misread the market. Over time, those insights will compound – and that’s when betting becomes more than just a game of chance.